Scott Penberthy
The Approximation Era
Katherine Johnson approximated John Glenn's re-entry
trajectory by hand, one calculation per second, using Euler's method.
Glenn refused to board the rocket until she checked the numbers. She
got it right. He came home alive.
Today we run that same math trillions of times per
second, across thousands of processors, on trillions of times more
data. We have built a universal approximator and a universal generator.
Two new tools for science and business.
Feed a model enough low-level data over time and
something remarkable happens. Pixels over time, and it learns physics,
fluid motion, emotion, cinema. Nucleotides over time, and it learns
how proteins fold, how genes express, how cancer progresses. The same
architecture, the same math, working across physics, biology, and
creativity.
That shouldn't be surprising. We've been approximating
the world for centuries. Newton was wrong, but close enough to build
bridges and predict tides. We traded pen and paper for calculus, and
it gave us the modern world.
Now we're doing it again, at a scale Katherine Johnson
couldn't have imagined. Instead of one equation solved by hand, these
models use high-dimensional functions with billions of parameters to
approximate the observable universe. They're still wrong. Newton was
wrong too. But they're less wrong than anything we've had before, and
getting less wrong fast.
A healthy life is a path through the space of valid
lives. The edges are illness and death. A gorgeous video is a path
through time, with characters, places, things, and emotions. A drug
binding to its receptor is one shape fitting into another. The math
doesn't know which one it's solving. It just finds the path.
I've been in the room for four of these shifts. I
advised Lou Gerstner as IBM bet the company on the internet. That
work grew into a $15B business. I was Chief Technology Advisor to
Bob Moritz as PwC moved 6,000 partners and 160 territories to cloud.
I built Google Cloud's AI business
from
NASA
to healthcare to genomics, growing it into one of Cloud's fastest
segments. Now at Alphabet I work on generative AI, where the same
pattern is playing out in content and advertising.
With Lee Hood at the AI Cancer Forum I started.
Every time, I go hands-on first. I learn the
technology deeply, figure out where it's headed, and bring what I find
to CEOs and boards. That's what I do.
Alphabet (current)
Advises leadership on generative AI, content, and advertising.
Google Cloud
Founded Applied AI. NASA, healthcare, genomics. Multi-billion-dollar business.
PwC
Chief Technology Advisor to CEO Bob Moritz. Global cloud transformation.
Stanford Medicine
Tumor board and pharmacogenomics advisor.
Lustgarten
Board member. Pancreatic cancer research.
Marconi Foundation
Advisory board.
Photobucket
Scaled platform to 50M users. Acquired for $300M.
IBM
Advised CEO Lou Gerstner. Internet infrastructure. $15B impact.
Copernicus wrote down the position of the sun and
moon every day. Not to publish. To see. The data told him we weren't
the center of the universe.
I started doing the same thing with AI. Every day I
document one deployment that moved a number. A short-form video. One
data point. I started with the hyperscalers and ran out after a few
hundred. The well ran dry. I needed a bigger lens.
So I built the AI Radar. I pointed AI agents at
3,338 public companies, scanning every earnings call, every 10-K,
every press release. They extracted 4,332 verified AI deployments.
Thousands already in production. It blew my mind. The gap between
the companies that understand this phase change and the ones doing
window dressing is enormous.
AI Radar
3,338 companies. 4,332 verified AI use cases.
Get early access
Thanks. You'll hear from me soon.
AI Radar. 3,338 companies. 4,332 use cases. Extracted by AI agents.
Now I document the most interesting and impactful
examples daily, looking for the patterns. Hundreds of data points so
far. Thousands to come.
AI Money Moves
is the daily log. One AI deployment, one number, one video. The weekly
newsletter
pulls back and connects the dots.
Here's what the data tells me.
- Move to the Edge AI is eating the middle of every job. The value is moving to the people closest to the work and the machines doing it. Everything in between gets compressed.
- Watts, Tokens & Money Value flows downward in the AI economy. Energy wins. Pure software loses. The companies that control watts and silicon will own the next decade.
- Window Dressing vs. Core Most AI deployments optimize the wrong thing. They automate the periphery and leave the core business untouched.
AGI is arriving. We are the last feral humans. Someone should be paying attention.